Council meeting held on 23/05/2019 - Item 13.15 Mullumbimby Parking Schemes - Performance Review - Attachment Byron-Shire-Council-Tourism-scale-and-impact-analysis-November-2018-powerpoint-from-.id

Byron Shire Council –

Tourism scale and impact

analysis

November 2018

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared for Byron Shire Council. .id has taken all due

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referred to herein.

Content in this Report is based on Data from the Australian Bureau of

Statistics (ABS), Tourism Research Australia (TRA) and National Institute of

Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) and the Data remains the property

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Contents

Key findings

Tourism in Byron Shire – a snapshot

Tourism’s contribution to the Byron economy

Visitation overview

Visitation comparison

Socio-economic impact of tourism

Overview of findings

Appendix

Tourism scale and impact analysis

Terminology

The following terms and acronyms are used in this report.

Byron

Byron Shire Council or Byron Shire Council area

Domestic Overnight Visitors

Visitors to an area who live in a location within Australia and

stayed at least one night

Usual Resident Population

Census count of people where they usually live

Enumerated Population

Census count of people where they were on the night of the

Census

Estimated Resident Population (ERP)

ABS best estimate of actual resident population

LGA

Local Government Area

NIEIR

National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (National

Economics)

ABS

Australian Bureau of Statistics

TRA

Tourism Research Australia

Inside Airbnb

A website that analyses Airbnb listings data

Key Findings

Key Findings - scale

This report presents analysis into the scale and impact of high

visitation numbers in the Byron Shire Council area. Some key findings

have been drawn out for an overview:

In 2016/17, Tourism and Hospitality generated 23% of Byron’s jobs

(3,506 jobs) and 14.1% of output/sales ($463M) in 2016/17. As a

sector it would be Byron’s largest employer.

Output and jobs generated by the sector were equivalent to Coffs

Harbour which has an economy ($3.24B) and population (75,503)

more than double Byron’s ($($1.7B; 33,987).

In 2017/18, Byron was estimated to have had 2.0 million visitors.

Half of Byron’s visitors stay overnight (domestic and international),

compared to only 38% for the NSW as a whole.

Recent growth has outpaced the state’s. Between 2014 and 2018,

total visitation was estimated to have grown by 49%, compared to

11% for NSW.

Daytrippers increased by 74% over the last decade, and domestic

overnight visitors grew by 57%.

Domestic visitor nights up 33% from 2006/07, international nights

up 18%.

Events travel is a key market. In the three years to 2017/18, Byron

supported 3.3% of NSW’s events based trips including 8.3% of

NSW’s events based overnight travel.

Byron’s visitation is similar to much larger cities such as

Launceston and Townsville.

Byron has similar visitation to tourist destinations like the Great

Ocean Road, but 4 times the amount of international visitors stay

overnight.

Byron Bay is the 4

most visited destination in NSW and the 11

most visited in Australia amongst international visitors.

Byron Ballina Airport caters to half a million passengers each year

and over the last five years was the fastest growing airport

amongst Australia’s top 20.

International visitor nights forecast to grow by 900,000 over the

next decade, domestic nights by 700,000.

Key Findings - impact

Byron had an enumerated population of 33,624, 6.6% higher than

its usual resident population (31,556), equivalent to over 2,000

extra people. This was six times the state average.

Byron had an average of 14,000 visitors in the LGA each day in

2017/18 with 11,100 being overnight visitors. This is higher than all

locations in NSW’s north coast.

If added to the resident population this would represent a 45%

addition.

If the same methodology is applied to all LGAs, Byron’s

‘serviceable population’ is greater than Orange, Bathurst and

Lismore.

The cost of servicing this temporary population is estimated at $23

million per year.

Peak visitation months sees considerable congestion on Byron’s

roads. A 5 minute traffic delay in Byron Bay could generate almost

$10,000 per day in travel time costs.

Private rental accommodation is more commonly used by visitors

in Byron than elsewhere in NSW. In the three years to 2016/17,

17% of domestic overnight visitors used rental properties, double

most benchmarks. Byron has more Airbnb listings than all but 3

Greater Sydney LGAs.

Short term rentals are linked to unoccupied dwellings which

represent 13.2% of all Byron’s dwelling stock compared to 9.3%

for the state.

Properties used for holiday renting attract higher prices due to

their revenue stream. In 2017, The median dwelling price in Byron

was $865,0001. This was $225,000 more than the NSW average

The estimated median price for a house in Byron Bay was $1.5

million and rent was $900/week.

This places housing costs pressure on existing residents as in

2016, Byron had a lower median household income ($1,149 per

week) than the state ($1,486), however the median rent ($400)

was higher (NSW - $380).

Tourism in Byron Shire

A beach and

hinterland paradise

near the QLD

border

Byron

Bay

Brunswick

Heads

Mullumbimby

Bangalow

Suffolk

Park

Ocean

Shores

Byron Shire is located on the Far North

Coast of New South Wales, about 800

kilometres north of the Sydney CBD

and 200 kilometres south of the

Brisbane CBD.

Byron’s attractions reflect its coastal location and

access to sub-tropical hinterland

Most destinations and activities are connected to the outdoors and

nature, including:

Beaches – Belongil, Byron Bay, Wategos, Broken Head

Active sports – Surfing, Windsurfing, snorkeling, cycling, hiking

Local produce – Farmers markets, The Farm, Stone & Wood

Brewery, Byron Bay Cookies

Health and wellbeing – day spas, yoga retreats, Crystal castle &

Shambala gardens

Festivals – Splendour in the Grass, Byron Bay Bluesfest, Falls

Festival

Byron Bay Main Beach

Source: Visit NSW

Byron has an average hotel offer for its population size

However, its Airbnb offer is extraordinary

Byron Shire has more Airbnb listings than most LGAs in Greater Sydney, except for the City of Sydney, Waverly Council area (Bondi Beach) and

the City of Randwick. However, the average nights per year occupied in Byron Shire (72 nights per year per listing) is much higher than Waverly

and Randwick (both 36) meaning total Airbnb nights is greater than Waverly and almost double the Randwick’s.

Inside Airbnb, 2018. For reference, City of Sydney average nights per year is 79.

Byron has a larger share of visitors who use short-term

rentals

In the 3 years to

2017/18, 17% of

domestic overnight

visitors used rental

properties, double

most benchmarks

Accommodation

and attractions

centred on Byron

Bay

Tourism and hospitality is a

substantial contributor to the

economy

Tourism is vital to Byron’s economy

Jobs

3,506

Output/sales

$463M

Tourism and Hospitality generated 23% of

Byron’s jobs and 14% of output/sales in

2016/17. As a sector it would be Byron’s

largest employer.

Output and jobs generated by the sector were equivalent to or

greater than Coffs Harbour and Tweed which have economies

($3.2B; $3.3B) and populations (75,503; 94,857) effectively

double Byron’s ($1.7B; 33,987)

NIEIR, 2018; ABS Regional Population Growth, Australia (3218.0) .

Tourism can grow the economy without the

constraint of population and local market limits

Tourism brings external

earnings and increases

demand for local goods

and services which is

‘multiplied’ throughout the

local economy. Tourism is

also job friendly as

spending generates

relatively more jobs per

dollar than other industries

Source: NIEIR, 2018

In 2016/17, the flow-on impacts of direct

Tourism and Hospitality activities in Byron

was 1,600 jobs and $193m in output

Tourism output has grown faster than benchmark

LGAs

Tourism and

Hospitality

output/sales grew

by $57m between

2007 and 2017,

or 14%

Visitation overview

Substantial growth in domestic visitors

Half of Byron’s

visitors stay

overnight (domestic

and international),

compared to only

37% for the NSW as

a whole

201,000

International Visitors

1.3 million nights

818,000

Domestic Overnight Visitors

2.7 million nights

1,024,000

Day-trippers

In 2017/18, Byron was estimated to have had 2.0 million visitors:

Holiday

OtherVisiting

Family/Friends

Business

Source: Tourism Research Australia,

Unpublished data from the National Visitor

Survey and International Visitor Survey, 2017.

Compiled by .id the population experts.

Note: There are some clear limitations with

annual TRA visitation data due to sampling

variability. See Appendix for more detail.

*International visitors reason for trip based on

2016/17 due to issues related to data

availability.

Reason

for trip*:

Substantial growth in domestic visitors

Day-trippers grew

by 74% in the last

decade, and

domestic overnight

visitors grew by

57%. International

visitors haven’t

grown by as much.

Domestic visitor nights up 33% from 2007/08,

international nights up 18%

Growth in visitation has outpaced NSW’s,

especially in the last few years

Between 2014 and

2018, visitation was

estimated to have

grown by 49%,

compared to 11%

for NSW

Visitation comparison

Byron’s share of NSW visitation far exceeds its

population share

Looking at Byron

Bay in particular,

the share of NSW’s

population is only

0.4% but its share

of visitation is 2.1%

Events travel is a key market for Byron

More than 5% of Byron’s domestic visitors

come to Byron to attend an event.

In the three years to 2017/18, Byron

supported an estimated:

3.3% of NSW’s events

based trips, including

8.3% of NSW’s events

based overnight travel

Byron has more than double the visitation

numbers of some LGAs with equivalent population

Byron

Mount

Barker (SA)

Bega Valley

(NSW)

Southern

Downs (Qld)

Population (ERP, 2017) 33,987 34,643 34,095 35,542

Day-trippers (2017/18) 1,024,000 659,000 451,000 504,000

Domestic Overnight

Visitors (2017/18)

817,000 88,000 457,000 389,000

International Visitors

(2017/18)

201,000 6,400 34,000 13,000

Total Visitation 2.04 million 753,000 942,000 906,000

Source: ABS Cat 3218.0 Regional Population Growth, 2016/17; TRA, Unpublished data from the National Visitor Survey and International Visitor Survey, 2018.

N.B. Figures have been rounded for comparison purposes.

Byron’s visitation numbers match or exceed some

much larger cities

Byron

Launceston

(Tas)

Townsville

(QLD)

Population (ERP, 2017) 33,987 67,004 193,601

Day-trippers (2017/18) 1,024,000 1,055,000 644,000

Domestic Overnight

Visitors (2017/18)

817,000 617,000 918,000

International Visitors

(2017/18)

201,000 118,000 101,000

Total Visitation 2.04 million 1.79 million 1.66 million

Source: ABS Cat 3218.0 Regional Population Growth, 2016; TRA, Unpublished data from the National Visitor Survey and International

Visitor Survey, 2018.

N.B. Figures have been rounded for comparison purposes.

Byron’s population and visitation equivalent to

some other coastal tourist destinations, but with a

higher share of internatonal overnight visitors

Byron

Bass Coast

(Vic)

Surf Coast

(Vic)

Busselton

(WA)

Key tourism destination Byron Bay Phillip Island

Torquay/ Great

Ocean Road

Busselton/

Yallingup

Population (ERP, 2017) 33,987 34,223 31,324 38,300

Day-trippers (2017/18) 1,024,000 1,380,000 1,284,000 698,000

Domestic Overnight

Visitors (2017/18)

817,000 867,000 1,029,000 883,000

International Visitors

(2017/18)

201,000 49,000 52,000 55,000

Total Visitation 2.04 million 2.30 million 2.36 million 1.64 million

Source: ABS Cat 3218.0 Regional Population Growth, 2016; TRA, Unpublished data from the National Visitor Survey and International Visitor Survey, 2017.

N.B. Figures have been rounded for comparison purposes.

Byron Bay clearly one of Australia’s biggest

tourist drawcards

most visited by

international

tourists

most visited for

domestic overnight

stays

most visited for

day-trips

In 2017/18, Byron Bay was estimated to be the

most visited destination* in Australia

most visited in NSW

(after Sydney – Haymarket –The Rocks; Newcastle – Cooks Hill; and Wollongong East)

Source: Tourism Research Australia, Unpublished data from the National Visitor Survey and International Visitor Survey, 2018 . Compiled by .id the population experts.

*Destination defined as ABS Small Area Level 2

Byron region clearly one of Australia’s biggest

tourist destinations

In 2017/18, Ballina Byron Gateway Airport had

over half a million passengers and was the:

busiest regional airport

in Australia

busiest regional airport

in NSW

Fastest growing airport

amongst Australia’s top 20

over the last five years

Source: BITRE, Airport Traffic Data, 2018

Many international visitors utilise Gold Coast Airport to

access Byron; visitation expected to get an uplift off the

back of 2018 Commonwealth Games

In 2016/17, Gold Coast Airport was:

busiest airport in Australia; 5

busiest for international passengers

fastest growing airport for

international passengers amongst

Australia’s top 5 over the last five

years

Undergoing an expansion to

improve capacity and meet a

forecast growth of 10m passengers

over the next 20 years

Source: BITRE, Airport Traffic Data, 2018; Gold Coast Airport Masterplan Airport Forecasts.

Image source: www.goldcoastairport.com.au

In 2016/17, 7% of

all international

visitors to Byron

entered Australia

from Gold Coast

Airport

The 2018 Commonwealth

Games attracted over

500,000 visitors to the

Gold Coast

Source: Qld Government and City of Gold Coast

International visitor nights forecast to grow by 900,000 over

the next decade, domestic nights by 700,000

1.6 million nights

2.5 million nights

3 million nights

3.7 million nights

Keeping shares of Regional NSW Domestic and International Visitor nights constant

Socio-economic impact of

Byron’s tourism

Byron’s actual regular population is a lot larger

than its resident population

The 2016 Census records two different population

estimates. The usual resident population

incorporates those people who usually call a

location home, whereas the enumerated population

records where people were located on Census

night. Tourist destinations usually have much

larger enumerated populations. In 2016:

Byron had an enumerated

population of 33,624, 6.6% higher

than its usual resident population

(31,556), equivalent to over 2,000

extra people. This was six times

the state average.

The census likely undercounts the gap

The Census will likely undercount the average regular population in Byron due to a number of

factors:

It is recorded in August (Winter) which has lower visitation rates than some other months. For

example, research has shown that amongst non-resident owned properties in Byron, August

2011 was the 4

lowest month by % of total days properties rented and 6

lowest month for

usage by the owner.

It is a snapshot at one point in time and therefore can not incorporate the fact that Byron hosts

a number of festivals that regularly attract between 15 - 30,000 people per day

It undercounts the number of international ‘temporary residents’ by a large amount*

*At June 2016, the number of temporary visa holders was estimated at 1,060,410. The 2016 Census recorded 315,530 International Visitors on Census night.

Source: Department of Immigration and Border Protection, 2016; ABS Census 2016.

Harris, K. & Hugo, G., 2013, Time and tide: moving towards an understanding of temporal population changes in coastal Australia

Visitor data provides another perspective of

Byron’s substantial ‘extra’ population

Using TRA data of estimated day trippers and

visitor nights, it is estimated that Byron had

14,000 visitors in the LGA on

average each day (11,100 overnight

visitors)

This represents a 49% increase on

the usual resident population count

If the same methodology is applied to

all LGAs, Byron’s ‘serviceable

population’ is greater than Orange,

Bathurst and Lismore*

*Serviceable population = estimate resident population plus average daily visitors. LGA 2017 ERP (ABS) added to average daily visitation numbers (TRA 2017).

Peak visitor periods can cause considerable

congestion costs

Anecdotal evidence and traffic count data highlights the increased congestion on Byron roads during

peak travel months (Summer and April festival period). Congestion has a number of costs to

communities, namely

extra travel time

extra travel time variability (where congestion can result in trip times becoming more uncertain)

increased vehicle operating costs (primarily higher rates of fuel consumption), and

poorer air quality (with vehicles under congested conditions emitting higher rates of pollutants)

During the peak holiday periods,

A 5 minute traffic delay in Byron Bay could generate almost $10,000 per day in

travel time costs

Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, 2007, Working Paper 71

Based on modelled number of workers in Byron Bay Destination Zone commuting by vehicle (ABS Census, 2011),Traffic counts of Freight vehicles using Ewingsdale Road (supplied by BCC), and Value of time costs from Transport NSW

government Principles and Guidelines for Economic Appraisal of Transport Investment and Initiatives

A larger share of Byron’s dwelling stock is

unoccupied

As shown earlier, Byron has a larger share of

visitors who use short-term rentals. This is often

associated with a larger share of unoccupied

dwellings – houses/units that had no one living in

them on Census night. Research has shown that

these dwellings are often rented out for periods

when the owner is not in residence

In 2016:

13.2% of Byron’s dwelling stock was

unoccupied

This is equivalent to just over 2000

dwellings

In Byron Bay, it was 16.9%

The average for NSW is 9.3%

Harris, K. & Hugo, G., 2013, Time and tide: moving towards an understanding of temporal population

changes in coastal Australia

Short term rentals likely to be contributing to

elevated house prices

Byron’s dwelling stock is much more expensive

than the regional NSW average and well above

benchmark areas. In 2017:

The median dwelling price was

$865,000

. This was $225,000

more than the NSW average.

The estimated median price for a

house in Byron Bay was $1.5

million and rent was $900/week

The median rent for a 3 bedroom

house was $600 per week, $180

more than the NSW average.

The median dwelling price is the median of all house and unit sales prices in the quarter. It includes prices for large

dwellings with more than 3 bedrooms (26.5% of the dwelling stock in Byron) which can attract very large prices.

Byron Bay Suburb Profile, September 2017, realestate.com.au

Housing costs place a larger strain on Byron’s

usual residents

Households in Byron face some challenges entering the

housing market or meeting housing costs.

Byron has a lower median household income

($1,149 per week) than the state ($1,486),

however the median rent ($400) is higher (NSW -

$380).

61% of households are in the bottom two

household income quartiles, 56% of households

are in the top two weekly rental payment

quartiles.

The share of households facing rental stress is

17.2%, compared to 12.9% for New South

Wales.*

*Spending more than 30% of household income on rental payments. Source: ABS Census 2016 QuickStats

The rise of Airbnb impacts Council’s ability to

generate enough revenue to service visitation

Byron’s Accommodation Industry is estimated to

generate almost $100m year. However, it is estimated to

have less registered accommodation providers and bed

spaces (hotels, hostels, caravan parks) than other

areas.

Private Airbnb listings generate considerable revenue

that is not necessarily able to be taxed under traditional

rate based methods and therefore contribute to

servicing costs. According to Inside Airbnb data:

Airbnb listings in Byron Shire likely

generated almost $62.7m in revenue in

2017/18

This compares to only $15.6M for Tweed

Shire.

In June 2016, Coffs Harbour had 37 hotels/motels (15+ rooms) with 3,588 bed spaces, Byron had 18 with 1,499 bed

spaces; In 2010, Coffs Harbour had 58 hotel/motels/hostels with 5,401 bed spaces, Byron had 42 with 3,394 bed

spaces. Coffs Harbour also had double the amount of caravan parks, 20 compared to Byron’s 10. Source: ABS 8635.0

Tourist Accommodation, Small Area Data

Revenue figure is based on Inside Airbnb’s average price per night multiplied by estimated nights occupied by number

of listings. Refer to Appendix for more details.

Byron tourism overview

A major contributor to the

economy

In 2016/17, Tourism and Hospitality generated:

$463M3,506

23% of

Byron’s Jobs

14% of

Output

50% stayed

at least one

night

10% were

international

Byron’s visitors more likely to

be from o/s and stay longer

In 2017/18, out of all visitors:

(NSW – 38%) (NSW – 3%)

Byron Bay one of Australia’s

biggest tourist drawcards

In 2017/18, Byron Bay was estimated to be the:

most visited

destination in NSW

2.0 million visitors

(More than Coffs Harbour,

Launceston and Mandurah)

Byron’s visitation numbers

equivalent to larger regional

cities

In 2017/18, Byron had:

Ballina Byron Gateway

Airport enables visitation

In 2017/18, the airport was:

Servicing 500,000

passengers

Airbnb has changed the

accommodation landscape

In 2018, Byron Shire had:

busiest in

regional NSW

Fastest growing

amongst

Australia’s top 20

over previous 5

years

2,912 listings

More than all but

3 of Greater

Sydney’s LGAs

Byron is an event/festival

capital

In the three years to 2017/18, the shire supported:

8.3% of NSW’s

events based

overnight travel

Byron’s actual population

much larger than resident

population

In 2016, there were:

Over 2,000 more people in

Byron than usual residents

recorded on Census night

The 6.6% gap is six times the

state average

Cost of servicing this ‘extra’

population is substantial

Using average per person service delivery costs, Byron’s

high visitation would have a:

An extra 14,000 visitors

each day, 11,100 of which

were staying overnight

This is a 45% increase on

the usual resident count

$23M annual

servicing cost

However, the Census undercounts average populations due to

difficulties recording overseas visitors and seasonal variations.

Using visitation data, in 2017/18, on average, there were:

Congestion during peak

periods also has a social cost

A 5 minute traffic delay in Byron Bay could generate almost:

$10,000 per day in

travel time costs

Holiday rentals drive up

housing costs

Byron has a lower median household income than the state,

however the median rent is higher.

17.2% of households face

rental stress (NSW -12.9%)

N.B. Some icons sourced from freepik.com

Appendix

Tourism Research Australia Data and limitations

The primary source of information on visitor numbers to LGAs are the National Visitor Survey

(NVS) and International Visitor Survey (IVS) produced by Tourism Research Australia (TRA).

Estimates produced as part of the NVS/IVS are based on a sample, rather than a census. As such,

the results are subject to sampling variability.

.id usually applies a number of techniques to account for these sampling issues. These techniques

include:

• Analysis is typically based on a three – five year average. This improves the sample sizes and

validity of the data.

• Benchmarked to other regions to isolate regional/local effects

• Data from the ABS and other sources are used to support observations.

At the client’s request, we have reported annual point in time visitation date for 2017/18 in some

slides. This data is presented with the caveat that due to sampling variability in individual years,

users of the data should note make decisions based on this data alone.

NIEIR Tourism and Hospitality estimates

Tourism and hospitality are key industries and major contributors to Australia’s economy. However

it has not been well represented in economic profiles in the past, because it actually includes parts

of many different traditional industries.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics publish the “Tourism Satellite Account” which is a separate set

of national accounts which look at the value and contribution of tourism in the national economy.

This dataset presents National Economics microsimulation model of the tourism satellite account

at the local level, showing the value of total sales and value add, as well as annual estimates of

employment and FTE employment for the tourism sector.

Further information can be found at: http://economy.id.com.au/byron/tourism-value

Inside Airbnb

Airbnb data for the Northern Rivers region is freely available at http://insideairbnb.com/northern-

rivers/

According to the site, a conservative occupancy model has been built in order to estimate

Occupancy Rates, Income per Month and Nights per Year. More information on the methodology of

the occupancy model can be found in the disclaimers.

Inside Airbnb: Northern Rivers uses the following parameters:

• A high availability metric and filter of 60 days per year

• A frequently rented filter of 60 days per year

• A review rate of 50% for the number of guests making a booking who leave a review

• An average booking of 3 nights unless a higher minimum nights is configured for a listing.

• A maximum occupancy rate of 70% to ensure the occupancy model does not produce artificially

high results based on the available data